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2025 New Mexico College Football Preview:

UNM Lobos and NMSU AggiesAs the 2025 NCAA Division I FBS football season approaches, New Mexico’s two flagship programs, the University of New Mexico Lobos (Mountain West Conference) and New Mexico State Aggies (Conference USA), are gearing up for competitive campaigns. Both teams face unique challenges and opportunities, with new coaching dynamics, key player transitions, and heated rivalry games shaping their outlook. Below is a detailed preview of each team’s 2025 season, including key storylines, players to watch, and schedule breakdowns, based on the latest available information.

University of New Mexico Lobos

2024 Recap

The Lobos finished 2024 with a 5-7 record (3-4 in MW play) under Bronco Mendenhall, who left for Utah State after one season. Despite the .500 record, UNM showed flashes of potential, notably a 50-45 comeback win over New Mexico State in the Rio Grande Rivalry, marking the largest second-half comeback in school history (16 points). The team struggled with consistency, particularly on defense, but a strong running game and quarterback competition set the stage for 2025.

2025 Outlook

New head coach Jason Eck, hired from Idaho on December 14, 2024, brings a high-energy, offensive-minded approach after going 3-0 against Idaho State in his prior role. Eck inherits a team with a solid offensive foundation but defensive concerns. The Lobos were predicted to finish 11th in the MW preseason poll in 2024, and expectations for 2025 remain modest, with some analysts projecting a 1-11 record due to a tough schedule and defensive rebuilding needs. However, posts on X suggest optimism about an improved defense and a strong running back corps, potentially pushing UNM closer to a .500 record.

Key Players

  • QB Jack Layne or James Laubstein: The quarterback battle remains unresolved, with Layne (returning from an elbow injury) and Laubstein competing for the starting role. Eck is set to name a starter by August 18, 2025. Layne’s mobility and experience give him a slight edge.
  • RB NaQuari Rogers: A standout in 2024, Rogers anchors a deep running back group that could exploit weaker MW defenses.
  • LB Tyler Martinez: A transfer from New Mexico State, Martinez’s tackling prowess (96 tackles in 2024) bolsters a linebacker unit needing to generate more pressure.

Schedule Highlights

The Lobos face a challenging slate with six home games and tough road trips. Key games include:

  • Aug. 30 at Michigan: A daunting opener against the Wolverines in the Big House.
  • Sept. 6 vs. Idaho State: Eck’s familiarity with the Bengals should secure a home-opening win.
  • Sept. 27 vs. New Mexico State: The Rio Grande Rivalry is a must-win for fan morale, especially after UNM’s 2024 victory.
  • Nov. 1 at UNLV: A critical MW game at Allegiant Stadium against a strong Rebels team.
  • Nov. 15 vs. Colorado State: A winnable home game against a middle-tier MW foe.

Projected Record: 3-9 to 5-7. The Lobos could steal a few MW games, but road tests against Michigan, UCLA, and Boise State are likely losses. A bowl game is a stretch but not impossible with defensive improvements.

Betting Angle

Bettors should focus on UNM’s home games, where they’re likely to cover spreads against non-elite MW teams like Nevada or Colorado State. Over/unders may lean toward the over, given Eck’s offensive schemes and a potentially shaky defense. The rivalry game against NMSU offers value on UNM as slight favorites at home. You can choose from one of our trusted New Mexico friendly online sports books here.

New Mexico State Aggies

2024 Recap

The Aggies struggled in 2024, finishing 3-9 (2-6 in C-USA) in Tony Sanchez’s first year as head coach, following Jerry Kill’s retirement and the departure of star QB Diego Pavia to Vanderbilt. The offense was among the weakest in C-USA, averaging just 143.2 passing yards per game, and the defense managed only 44 tackles for loss, one of the lowest in FBS. A 50-40 loss to UNM stung, but a 27-17 win in 2023 keeps the rivalry competitive.

2025 Outlook

Sanchez’s second year brings cautious optimism after a rebuilding 2024. The Aggies added key transfers, notably QB Logan Fife from Montana, and bolstered their offensive line with experienced players. The defense, led by linebackers Tyler Martinez and Sone Aupiu, aims to increase its 2023 tackle-for-loss total (79) after a dismal 2024. C-USA’s relatively soft competition offers a path to improvement, with some predicting a 5-7 record. However, the loss of offensive tackle Shiyazh Pete to Kentucky hurts, and the team must improve its -13 turnover margin.

Key Players

  • QB Logan Fife: The Montana transfer (1,890 yards, 14 TDs in 2024) brings efficiency to a passing game that desperately needs it. He’s the clear starter after a strong spring game.
  • RB Dijon Stanley: A Utah transfer, Stanley is poised to lead the backfield after the departure of All-CUSA RBs Seth McGowan and Mike Washington.
  • LB Sone Aupiu: A hard-hitting middle linebacker, Aupiu is critical to improving the defensive front’s pressure.

Schedule Highlights

NMSU plays at Aggie Memorial Stadium for home games and faces a manageable C-USA schedule with tough non-conference tests. Key games include:

  • Aug. 30 vs. Bryant (FCS): A winnable opener against an FCS opponent.
  • Sept. 6 vs. Tulsa: A toss-up against a middling AAC team.
  • Sept. 27 at New Mexico: The Rio Grande Rivalry is critical after last year’s loss; NMSU needs to reclaim bragging rights.
  • Nov. 8 vs. Kennesaw State: A new C-USA member and likely win.
  • Nov. 22 vs. Middle Tennessee: A winnable home finale to close the season.

Projected Record: 4-8 to 6-6. The Aggies could surprise in C-USA with Fife’s leadership and a few defensive tweaks, but road games at Tennessee and Liberty are likely losses. A bowl game is possible with upsets.

Betting Angle

NMSU offers value as underdogs in home games against teams like Tulsa or Kennesaw State. The rivalry game at UNM could see close odds, with NMSU’s improved offense potentially covering. Look for prop bets on Fife’s passing yards and under bets on games against stronger defenses like Liberty.

Rio Grande Rivalry: UNM vs. NMSU

The September 27 clash in Albuquerque is the highlight of New Mexico’s football calendar. UNM’s 2024 win (50-40) swung momentum, but NMSU’s 2023 victory (27-17) shows the series’ competitiveness. With both teams rebuilding, expect a high-scoring affair. UNM’s home advantage and running game make them slight favorites, but NMSU’s new QB and defensive depth could keep it close. Bettors should monitor injury reports and early-season performances.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 season offers both the Lobos and Aggies a chance to build on recent strides. UNM, under Eck, aims to leverage its home schedule and offensive firepower, while NMSU, with Sanchez and Fife, seeks to climb C-USA’s ranks. Both face tough non-conference schedules, but winnable conference games provide hope. For bettors, focus on home underdog spots, rivalry game props, and over bets in high-scoring matchups. Check offshore sportsbooks like Bovada or BetOnline for the latest odds and live betting options.